A year after party-crashing to the National League pennant and reaching the World Series despite lacking home-field advantage in every matchup, the Philadelphia Phillies will get to host a postseason party of their own. The crowd at Citizens Bank Park figures to be lively for a team that is deeper, wiser and more dangerous than the one that pushed the Houston Astros nearly to the brink last October.
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The Phillies could not challenge the Atlanta Braves for the National League East crown, but the group is still formidable at this time of year. Bryce Harper recovered from Tommy John surgery to put together another excellent season. Trea Turner came alive in the second half and reminded fans why Philadelphia forked over $300 million for him this past winter. The lineup figures to cause headaches for any opposing pitching staff. Zack Wheeler (13-6, 3.61 ERA) is healthy after battling elbow issues before the 2022 postseason. The Phillies could use a revival from fellow starter Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.46 ERA), who has struggled in his platform season for free agency.
Read more: MLB Wild Card Series predictions: Our experts make their postseason picks
The Marlins gave the Phillies fits in 2023. Miami won the season series, 7-6, en route to their unexpected arrival in the postseason. They forged ahead despite injuries to top pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez. The trio of Jesús Luzardo (10-9, 3.63 ERA), Edward Cabrera (7-7, 4.24 ERA) and Braxton Garrett (9-7, 3.66 ERA) provides rookie manager Skip Schumaker with a solid option for each potential game at Citizens Bank Park. The midseason acquisition of infielders Josh Bell and Jake Burger lengthened a lineup that mostly relied upon infielder Luis Arraez and outfielder Jorge Soler.
The winner of this series must travel to Atlanta to face a budding juggernaut. For the Phillies, at least, that would mean familiar territory: The chance to crash someone else’s party. — Andy McCullough
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How MLB playoffs work: Bracket, rules, format
Game times
Game 1: Marlins at Phillies, Tuesday, Oct. 3 at 8:08 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Probable starters: Jesús Luzardo (10-9, 3.63) vs. Zack Wheeler (13-6, 3.61)
Game 2: Marlins at Phillies, Wednesday, Oct. 4 at 8:08 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Probable starters: Braxton Garrett (9-7, 3.66 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.46 ERA)
Game 3: Marlins at Phillies, Thursday, Oct. 5 at 8:08 p.m. ET, ABC (if necessary)
- Probable starters: TBD vs. TBD
Tale of the Tape
Who has the edge?
| Teams | R/G | SP ERA | RP ERA | DRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
4.15 (26th) | 4.13 (9th) | 4.34 (20th) | -6 (21st) | |
4.89 (8th) | 4.31 (15th) | 3.60 (7th) | -28 (26th) |
Phillies top performers
| Player | POS | KEY STATISTICS | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lineup | 1B | .293/.401/.499, .384 wOBA | 3.3 | |
Rotation | RHP | 3.61 ERA, 26.9 K% | 6.0 | |
Bullpen | LHP | 1.74 ERA, 37.2 K% | 1.3 | |
Fielding | CF | DRS 14, UZR 4.0 | 1.3 |
Marlins top performers
| Player | POS | KEY STATISTICS | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lineup | 2B | .354/.393/.469, 5.5 K% | 3.4 | |
Rotation | LHP | 3.63 ERA, 28.1 K% | 3.7 | |
Bullpen | LHP | 2.31 ERA, 33.9 K% | 2.8 | |
Fielding | C | 103 G, 6 DRS | 0.3 |
Pitching matchups
This matchup features the best starting rotation in baseball by one all-encompassing statistic … and it’s not the Marlins. That’s not to say Miami’s rotation wasn’t good — they had a higher strikeout rate and a lower ERA but ceded almost 100 innings to the Phillies — it’s just to say that Philadelphia’s rotation is underrated and should enjoy a matchup advantage on the first two days with Wheeler and Nola at the helm.
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On the third day, the Phillies may face a tough decision between Taijuan Walker’s steady but unspectacular work and Cristopher Sánchez’s emergent dominance. Only three starting pitchers got more horizontal movement on their sinkers than Sanchez, though, and his changeup held hitters to a .147 average this year. He has multiple weapons and will probably be an important part of Game 3 (if necessary), wherever he slots in.
Full-year numbers don’t really capture what’s going on in Miami, but with Luzardo and Garrett, they at least have two starters who are capable of pitching great games. The wild card — almost literally — is Cabrera, who has really good stuff but also had a higher walk rate than all but one other starter who threw 70 innings this season. It’s fun watching his Marlins-branded 93 mph power change, but the walks will determine his success.
Again, the full-year numbers say it’s a pick’em in the pen, but that’s not right. By getting healthy late in the season and adding rookie sensation Orion Kerkering, the Phillies probably have the best bullpen in the National League. They enter on a good string, having spent the last week of the regular season with an ERA near 1.00 and a strikeout rate over 40 percent.
The reputation says the Marlins should have a pitching advantage, but park- and roster-adjusted numbers say it’s the Phillies staff that’s ahead. — Eno Sarris
Why the Phillies will win
The Phillies believe they are built for a short series — just like they were last October — and it’s hard to argue against that logic. They have a deeper stable of pitchers to trust this time. They are postseason-tested after a magical run in 2022 that resulted in an NL pennant. And, this time, they are starting at home. Citizens Bank Park creates a legitimate home-field advantage; the Phillies did not lose a postseason game at home last year until the World Series. It’s an intimidating atmosphere for any opponent — let alone an inexperienced one such as Miami.
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Wheeler and Nola are as good a 1-2 punch as there is in any postseason rotation. José Alvarado and Craig Kimbrel are strong late-inning options. Jeff Hoffman can handle a pocket of righties and Gregory Soto is a weapon against lefties. Matt Strahm is a do-it-all bullpen utility knife and Kerkering, a rookie righty who began the season in Low A, has top-notch stuff. Good pitching beats good hitting in October, and the Phillies have various paths toward 27 outs.
The lineup is filled with power threats and, as the Phillies learned last October, the cleanest method for winning tense games is to hit the ball over the wall. Harper has risen to the biggest moments, but he’s not alone. The Phillies had six different players reach the 20-homer mark for the first time in club history. Weird things happen in a short series. Miami might be plucky — and somewhat reminiscent of the Phillies at this time a year ago — but the Phillies just have too great of an edge. — Matt Gelb
Why the Marlins will win
Yes, the Phillies have scored more runs than the Marlins this season, and they’ve allowed fewer runs than the Marlins this season. Miami, in fact, owns the worst run differential (negative-56) of any playoff team in baseball history. It’s Philadelphia that owns the star power and postseason experience from a season ago, and most rational observers would label it the better team.
Baseball’s postseason laughs at the conclusions of rational observers.
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The Marlins are the craziest part of a crazy National League wild-card race
This is a three-game series, and the Astros showed in the final weeks of the season the large range of possibilities in such small samples. This isn’t fully a David-and-Goliath matchup: Miami won the season series, including taking two of three in both series at Citizens Bank Park. While the Phillies are 30-21 this season against left-handed starters, they’re 0-4 against Luzardo and Garrett. Miami’s bullpen is deep enough to be deployed creatively and extensively over the next three days, and the lineup has operated at a different level since the additions of Burger and Bell at the trade deadline. This is a team that feels comfortable in high-pressure situations — you don’t go 33-13 in one-run games if you don’t — and has nothing to lose. That’s a dangerous combination in any postseason format. — Tim Britton
Staff predictions for PHI/MIA series
| Team | Percentage of votes |
|---|---|
95% | |
5% |
(Top photo of Luis Arraez: Mitchell Layton / Getty Images; Photo of Bryce Harper: Aaron Gash / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
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